tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-88887623887646119342024-02-19T10:00:33.218+08:00Bursa Malaysia top picklittle view from little meleeyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268934698420770132noreply@blogger.comBlogger36125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8888762388764611934.post-12436000753897158992009-04-18T09:13:00.002+08:002009-04-18T09:29:55.983+08:00Worst is Over? how about tomorrowThere is suprise move for "V" shape rebound from Dow since early March... which is continous for 5 week. Question now is , does this rally can be long or what will will happen tomorrow?<br /><br /> Some Developing markets, like India index break records of 32% in just past a month. I believe some of the reader here who manage to capture this rebound sure have handsome return. No matter you buy Bursa stocks or index funds. Almost all the central bank now fighting in "printing money game".What is implication on it? Money flow everywhere, This not only happen in US, even China initially a bit reluctant to joining the game, now also fighting on it.<br /><br />When Fund over flow, some will flow to market, I.e any market; Commodities or Equity. This can be see in many commodities index also have similar perform as compare equity. Now they have worry of next commodities boom and finally will lead by another round of inflation boom.<br /><br />How serious on it? No body know. If you go hawker centre orany hypermarket . you will notice food prices not reduce as report said low inflation rates, ! pack of 10 kg rice still cost us RM50 compare last time RM30++. Jusy imagine another round of inflation come, What is the implication of the rice price? 10 kg rice may go to rm 100 per packs. my god~ does this will happen? Yes. If projection is do it correctly.<br /><br />What we need to do now? Putting money in bank or pillow? well, low interest rates in bank definetely not enough for cover inflation rates, wealth will gone! Equity and other tools in investment. I may said "yes", but violative and timing of enter and leaving market became important compare old day.<br /><br />Now is good time to enter or profit taking. My prediction is, market will still rebound, for those not yet enter into game. I will said you are losses the golden chance to cape high return. Entering now will facing higher risks then before. I may said for those not yet enter, still can be enter by stages, may be with lower % of commitmment. for those entering i may said, hold for while, of course some adjustment may be coming soon. The game is started not yet end by tomorrow.leeyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268934698420770132noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8888762388764611934.post-70515111238720782382009-04-04T09:53:00.000+08:002009-04-04T10:20:20.695+08:00Investment in Bursa and oversea market ? Our EPF accounts.There are many argument that where and who should be decision maker of our EPF money?<br />Currently they are some option and restriction for our money in EPF to be invested.<br /><br />1. Only member who reach minimum balance of RM 50 k to be eligible for investment scheme outside normal dividend received. The rules has change to encourage more younger to expose their investment habit. ( for example age 20. then u minimum balance..should be lower amout)<br /><br />2. only stages by stages. investment over the period of time for investment, and not lump sum investment. 20% of your excess min balance is allow to taken out. and next withraw is another 3 month from the approved for your 1st withrawal.<br /><br />3 Limited fund to be selected, Only Malaysia fund are eligible in the scheme, those fund with oversea content are not allow to be invest. Purpose is to avoid country risk outside malaysia.<br /><br />4. Only Unit trust is allowable to invest and not direct to Bursa or equity market. The purpose is same as mention in point 3, risks<br /><br />In my view, there are excellent moves for flexible minimum balance to encourage youngest in investment. But otherlimitation such as not allow invest in oversea fund or direct to stock counter need to be re consider or re planning.<br /><br />Globalization will let many Malaysia company with oversea exposure with greater return and other global risk. meaning invest in only local funds will not help us to reduce our risk in globalized. Reversely, may be restrict for Malaysian to get better return with moderate risk. If you compare risk and return for unit trusts market. you will find not necessary is local fund will bring your lower risk or better return. I will find some is worst performance compare to local fund. I will suggest open portion of the investment to oversea fund to spread the country risk.<br /><br />Can we consider using our EPf money to direct invest in certain : blue chip " counters in Bursa Malaysia. Reports show over the time, certain Blue chip counter will bring better return even though violative markets. Just for example. if you buying a units of "Genting " share 20 year ago. Compare with other Unit trust or Epf dividend. Definetely that will given us better return.<br /><br />Of course I may said, the EPF board is consider lack of market knowledge of malaysian and low finance education...... but over the year, I find those restriction should be open stages by stages. In view of the size of EPF now, there are better for EPF to let unit holder to learn how malaysian can be learn and manage our EPF money.<br /><br />There are report show that many malaysian are utilised their EPF after 3 year of retirement. Does this show malaysian need to be more educated in finance or money planning. EPF will only help us manage money up to 55 year old. Does mean more open for investment will bring more risks to statesholder? We should learn lesson from US or some reason for burning their retirement fund in financial crisis. but does regurlation or control will let us have more knowledge?leeyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268934698420770132noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8888762388764611934.post-9861792522207942382008-09-19T13:27:00.000+08:002008-09-19T13:27:44.899+08:00Free Raja Petra Kamaruddin, Teresa Kok and Others Held Under the Internal Security Act Petition<a href="http://www.petitiononline.com/isa1234/petition.html">Free Raja Petra Kamaruddin, Teresa Kok and Others Held Under the Internal Security Act Petition</a><br /><br /><p>I’ve signed the petition.</p> <p>If you haven’t please click the image below, read the petition and sign it, please, and then get all your family and friends to do the same.</p> <p><a href="http://www.petitiononline.com/isa1234/petition.html" target="_blank"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-3523" title="1ae2dd3447dd4b5f0db911161920c9e7" src="http://harismibrahim.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/1ae2dd3447dd4b5f0db911161920c9e7.gif?w=219&h=146" alt="" width="219" height="146" /></a></p>leeyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268934698420770132noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8888762388764611934.post-67627041651956284592008-07-09T09:51:00.000+08:002008-07-09T10:03:19.289+08:00Bursa FB30ETF Beating market ?First at all , i want to introduced what is FB30ETF<br /><br /><br /> If you don’t know what is an ETF, this is a 3 letter acronym for "<strong><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Exchange Traded Funds</span></strong>". Basically, these are <strong><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">passively managed</span></strong> funds with <strong><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">minimal expenses</span></strong>, i.e. the manager who manages the fund is not permitted to engage in active trading. Instead, the ETF <strong><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">goal</span></strong> is to simply <strong><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">track</span></strong> the performance of a <strong><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Benchmark Index</span></strong>, with <strong><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">minimal “tracking error”</span></strong>. This is done by simply <strong><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">buying</span></strong> the Index component shares and <strong><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">holding</span></strong> them until such time when the Component Shares are altered. The Manager then <strong><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">swaps</span></strong> the shares in line with the <strong><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">change in the Index component</span></strong>. That’s pretty much simply investoment decision. WHo partimer want to swap to investment with limited costs involved.<br /> <br /> Compare with Tradisional unit trust in Malaysia, Which is paying 5% cost of entry ( latest Epf entry only 3%). There is advantages of using this fund with costs only 0.7 % or even low of rm 12 per entry. Wah amazing , Many market participant fail to win the battle due to commision. Imagine your fund put into market and u lost 5% immediately on holding such fund. These is very much similarily within those fund and return. Compare to those Aggresive fund, This fund only invest in top 30 component stock on Bursa Malaysia. Which is moderate return and risk compare to those agrresive fund. Of course return may be lower but risk will be higher. Remember the costs is lower, you no need to monitor the performance on the stock price daily.<br /><br />There may be many other choice of derivate market. This may be one of the best choice in current uncertainty market for equity investor.leeyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268934698420770132noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8888762388764611934.post-91810068603990599142008-07-07T17:12:00.000+08:002008-07-07T17:29:49.262+08:00HEDGE on Comodities using Bursa tools?Some one comment my posting, said i am persuade people to hedge while i got no such intention to do so!<br /><br /> All go back to Equity again, beside <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Commodities</span> counter, such <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">IOI</span>, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Kinsteel</span> and Oil n gas counter. Wat stock should i hold to mitigate the reverse condition. As i mention early that , Cost Push inflation this time is totally due to high oil and other <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">commodities</span> price. There is no demand push or other factor behind. So Wat?<br /><br /> If the assumption is real. There is <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">possibility</span> interests rates as weapon for hedge the inflation. There is difficulty using strong currency hedge inflation in Malaysia, Overall we are net exporter, Strong currency is not good to our economic, so <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">Wat</span> is next, of course if interests rate hit... Non performing loan , margin all such will reverse from our Banking system or financial control. But<br /><br /> If said oil suddenly drop 20%, the erase of inflation risk and fear on financial stock will removed. Looking at Bursa stocks, I find <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">Bumi</span> Commerce is rather cheap now. Why <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">Bumi</span>-Commerce ?<br /><br /><span style="font-family: verdana;">P/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">NTA</span> 2.4x</span> <span style="font-family: verdana;"><br />2007 PER: 9x</span><br /><span style="font-family: verdana;">2008 PER: 9.7x (absorption of Thai bank)</span> <span style="font-family: verdana;"><br />ROE 2007: 20%</span><br /><span style="font-family: verdana;">ROE 2008: 16%</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: verdana;">The Thai bank stake acquisition while a bit pricey at p/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">nav</span> of 2.9x is still much better than <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">Maybank's</span> recent purchases, and makes more sense. Bank Thai is the 9<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">th</span> largest bank in terms of assets with 147 branches. Post recapitalisation, the purchase price would be 2.3x adjusted <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">NAV</span>. It had some losses in <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">CDOs</span> hence they were open to <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">Bumi</span>-Commerce's entry. The <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">CDO's</span> exposure had been written down already. At least <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">Bumi</span>-Commerce is showing the right culturally correct way to make a regional acquisition, take note <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">Temasek</span>.<br /><br />There are calling from <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_18">CLSA</span> , 98% gain from current price Rm 7.40. See there is insurance given. I am thinking buying such stock is something hedging risk of down turn of <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_19">commodities</span>. Of course there is a risk. At current price, I think risk is minimum.<br /><br />Of course you can said buying <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_20">Citigroup</span> , <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_21">AiA</span> or bank of <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_22">American</span> all about 30% to 40% value at the peak! There is similarity to buy finance stock as hedging on buying <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_23">IOI</span>, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_24">KNM</span> and so on.. Such stock never been correct since oil keep breaking record.. again <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_25">USD</span> 200 or 300 coming I <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_26">don no</span>!! Really <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_27">Donn</span>.<br /><br /></span>leeyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268934698420770132noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8888762388764611934.post-47547260021595708912008-07-07T13:37:00.000+08:002008-07-07T14:27:05.067+08:00KLSE 1123 < CHEAP ?>Political uncertainty and inflation worry make Bursa Malaysia Retreat from year high 1500 to current around 1123, Many punter are away from market since 308 , post election.........<br /><br />Does current stocks price value cheap or reverse? of course compare to 1500 point.. the entry point now is much lower . the question will be deep down said below 1000 point... wow... another 15% from current price!~~~<br /><br />In my opinion Inflation is something unavoidable and will continuous impact on our market. High fuel price and commodities always is enemy of equity market. There are many people blame on speculator to make oil surge and the bubble may burst once they left the market ? Does it true?<br />Well, there are other opinion that is naturally demand increase (china , India....) and constraint on supply (Natural source) . There is a lot of supporter believe in for long term, natural resource like oil... and other commodities will end... since continuous explosion. Does the price support current level near Usd150 per ballet . or Usd 200, 250...... as their predict. Honour's I donno the answer and no body can answer too.<br />Political uncertainty. I believe this is short term for equity, over the long run..... political risks should be managed by good administration system. Many people will not agreed with this statement. Malaysia administrative system is under develop by British system which well develop and easy administrative. Our problem here is execution and human Bias to make system unworkable. If changing the government will affect our basic/fundamental administrative system. I fully confidence with the risk of political may not hurt our good system build up...<br />Any unreasonable deep in political link, government link stock is good opportunity to hold in. Of course must be careful to those incompetent company I.e those company only able to gain company contract with unreasonable price! I would not mention which counter are they. Easily you can find info for them in market.<br /><br />Third and not least, for short term holding on commodities and oil n gas counter is based option to hedged the inflation risk and is current trend. But... if oil drop said 10% ore 20% , certainly there is rebound on equity. By that time who is gainer?? Where inflation risk is erase and... political stable. So think wisely and act correctly before investment.leeyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268934698420770132noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8888762388764611934.post-73338670378651241912008-01-21T15:11:00.000+08:002008-01-21T15:13:06.034+08:00Looking Back at the Crash of '29: Then, as Now, a New EraLooking Back at the Crash of '29: Then, as Now, a New Era<br /><br /><br /><br /> <br />Corbis/ Bettman-UPI<br />Thousands of brokers and investors gathered outside of the exchange trying to find out about a drop in the market.<br /><br /><br />Any look back now at the great stock market boom of the 1920's must inevitably be colored by the boom of the 1990's. Then, as now, leverage helped push prices up. Then anyone could buy stocks by putting up 10 percent of the purchase price. Now, the margin rules call for 50 percent, but that rule is easily evaded by those who wish to do so. Then, as now, there was talk that an exciting new technology had rendered the old economic laws irrelevant. Then, as now, stock connected to that technology zoomed skyward, but even companies that had nothing to do with the technology saw their stock prices benefit.<br /><br />That technology was radio. Like the Internet, it led to widely publicized new ways to trade stocks. Suddenly, investors and speculators could be closer than ever before to the action. Millions of dollars of stocks were traded from brokerage house offices set up on cruise ships crossing the Atlantic.<br /><br /><br />Corbis/Bettman-UPI<br />Stock brokers and their clerks catching up on their sleep in a downtown Manhattan gym after they worked until early Oct. 30.<br />•Click on Image to See Larger Version <br />Also like the 1990's, the rise in stock prices sparked warnings of excess from skeptics long before the actual top. Alexander D. Noyes, The Times' financial editor and probably the most respected financial journalist of the era, wrote a long and persuasive article comparing the 1920's ``speculative mania'' to previous manias and casting a skeptical eye on the ability of stock prices to continue rising. It was published on Nov. 15, 1925, nearly four years before the crash.<br /><br />By 1929, such cautionary voices had been discredited, and the stock market had become a force unto itself, propelled by dreams -- and the reality -- of quick wealth. ``Playing the stock market has become a major American pastime,'' reported The Times in a magazine article published on March 24, 1929. The article noted that the number of brokerage accounts had doubled in the past two years, and added, ``It is quite true that the people who know the least about the stock market have made the most money out of it in the last few months. Fools who rushed in where wise men feared to tread ran up high gains.''<br /><br />That article was written after the Fed had made its principle stand against stock market speculation, by warning banks not to borrow from the Fed's discount window and then lend the money to stock market speculators. That led to a credit crunch, with interest rates on margin loans rising. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 4 percent the week of March 18-23. Then prices really cracked on Monday March 25 and continued falling until late in the day on Tuesday, when a rally arrived. Before that rally started, the Dow had fallen about 8 percent over less than two days _ the equivalent of around 800 points now.<br /><br /><br /> <br />The Associated Press<br />A detail of policemen on horseback were brought in to keep crowds moving past the New York Stock Exchange during the most severe decline in prices on Black Tuesday. Many of the passersby were wiped out when all trading records were broken. The ticker was 2 1/2 hours behind at closing.<br />•Click on Image to See Larger Version<br />``Responsible bankers agree,'' The Times quoted an unnamed broker as saying that day, after the recovery began, ``that stocks should now be supported, having reached a level that makes them attractive.''<br /><br />The responsible banker in question, it turned out, was Charles Mitchell, the president of National City Bank, a predecessor of today's Citibank. He defied the Fed, and lent out all the money the speculators wanted. Soon prices were back on their upward course. By the August peak, the Dow was 35 percent above the low reached during the March sell-off. There was a furor in Washington, but the public and the politicians thought that rising stock prices were good, and the Fed did nothing about Mitchell's defiance.<br /><br />When the crash arrived in October, it took several days to unfold. The first break came on Thursday, Oct. 24, but there was an afternoon rally that reduced the losses and a decent rise on Friday. But prices were weak on Saturday. (The market traded six days a week in those days.)<br /><br />Then the floor fell out. On Monday, Oct. 28, the Dow fell 12.8 percent. The next day, thereafter known as Black Tuesday, it lost another 11.7 percent. There would be rallies, but from then on the direction was down. By the time the bottom arrived, in 1932, the Dow was down 89 percent from its 1929 peak.<br /><br /><br />Archive Photos<br />The floor of the New York Stock Exchange, the day after the collapse.<br />•Click on Image to See Larger Version <br /><br />In rereading The Times' coverage of that crash, some things stand out. The paper wanted to cover the news thoroughly and honestly, but it also wanted to be careful not to be alarmist. Each day's headline found something positive to include, such as promises by bankers to aid the market.<br /><br />Nonetheless, the reporters knew they were witnessing something they had never seen before, as was reflected in two paragraphs below, taken from the lead story on Oct. 30, reporting on Black Tuesday:<br /><br />``Yesterday's market crash was one which largely affected rich men, institutions, investment trusts and others who participate in the market on a broad and intelligent scale. It was not the margin traders who were caught in the rush to sell, but the rich men of the country who are able to swing blocks of 5,000, 10,000, up to 100,000 shares of high-priced stocks. They went overboard with no more consideration than the little trader who was swept out on the first day of the market's upheaval, whose prices, even at their lowest of last Thursday, now look high by comparison.''<br /><br /><br /> <br />Brown Brothers<br />Throngs of people gathered in front of the sub-Treasury building across from the New York Stock Exchange during the 1929 stock market crash.<br />•Click on Image to See Larger Version<br />``Wall Street was a street of vanished hopes, of curiously silent apprehension and of a sort of paralyzed hypnosis yesterday. Men and women crowded the brokerage offices, even those who have been long since wiped out, and followed the figures on the tape. Little groups gathered here and there to discuss the falling prices in hushed and awed tones. They were participating in the making of financial history. It was the consensus of bankers and brokers alike that no such scenes ever again will be witnessed by this generation. To most of those who have been in the market it is all the more awe-inspiring because their financial history is limited to bull markets.''<br /><br />They were right. Never since has something quite like that been seen. Those who are confident that the Fed will assure that a similar event today would not bring economic disaster might do well to remember that people 70 years ago had faith in the same institution.leeyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268934698420770132noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8888762388764611934.post-57360057769935131312007-12-14T17:20:00.000+08:002007-12-14T17:22:31.539+08:00Give The World A Helping HandGive The World A Helping Hand<br /><br />My Dearest Readers,<br /><br />I have received a petition regarding OUR Earth's climate changes. I am a firm believer. Hence, I am passing on this urgent call for help!<br /><br />Do sign the petition!<br /><br /><br /><br /> * I just signed an emergency petition trying to save the crucial climate change talks in Bali, Indonesia right now by telling the US, Canada and Japan to stop blocking an agreement. You can sign it here:<br /><br /> http://www.avaaz.org/en/bali_emergency/98.php?CLICK_TF_TRACK<br /><br /> Almost all countries have agreed to cut rich country carbon emissions by 2020--which scientists say is crucial to stop catastrophic global warming, and will also help bring China and the developing world onboard. But with just 24 hours left in the conference, the US and its close allies Canada and Japan have rejected any mention of such cuts.<br /><br /> We can't let three governments hold the world hostage and block agreement on this desperate issue.<br /><br /> There's still 24 hours left to turn this around - click below to sign the petition - it will be delivered direct to summit delegates, through stunts and in media advertisements, so our voices will actually be heard. But we need a lot of us, fast, to join in if we're going to make a difference. Just click on the link to add your name:<br /><br /> http://www.avaaz.org/en/bali_emergency/98.php?CLICK_TF_TRACKleeyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268934698420770132noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8888762388764611934.post-58834283997046922862007-12-01T11:44:00.000+08:002007-12-01T11:54:16.552+08:00MEMS' accounting irregularities! Who is nextThis week we see 3 counter down like shit, oilcorp,mems and commitel, I believe coming will be more coming.Now SC really take serious on those irregularities. I believe some goreng stock or goreng profit counter will be next victim. For the time being 2nd and 3rd liner, mesdaq or 2nd board counter, I would not seen any positive on their performance. So beware friends.<br /><br />for MEMS. This is some of my comment. Legg Mason has taken a 5.4%-stake in MEMS in March. This reputable fund manager has invested in MEMS because its products were on the verge of gaining global acceptance. Back then, MEMS was reported to have secured 2 contracts for supply of silicon microphones & sensors, which would boost its turnover by the RM140 million a year. Is MEMS encountering any problems in relation to the performance of these contracts?<br /><br />The issued here is related to revenue and property, I believe certain revenue recognised by putting the assets value, but why the need to do so? To inject profit or to cover the loss? All this in question!!!<br /><br />Valuation 20 cent is cheap? even taken into accounts on this irregulaties, the company still can maintain the profit as 2006 result. why market dumping so fast. I believe the issued may be more deep that we know now.... more new will coming. another dumping may happen next week. said to 15 or 13 cent. When the picture is more clear. then should be some call, some analyst still maintin hold position for this counter. I believe this may not worst case. But lost reputation, will loss confidence in invester eye too. Reputation may not recover within 1 or 2 year.leeyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268934698420770132noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8888762388764611934.post-87259695436304116772007-10-12T20:35:00.001+08:002007-10-12T20:40:38.421+08:00Bursapersuit game !My ranking at the game as today is no 4, I am thinking the game is teaching speculate or fundamental. I believe people ranking at top 500. Most is speculate and hope to win the game. Otherwise tell me in bursa Malaysia who can win 300% within 2 week. Fundamental or Speculate.I am thinking whether this is Buffet way or soro way..... I stil thinking.leeyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268934698420770132noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8888762388764611934.post-54525488471772265842007-09-10T14:29:00.000+08:002007-09-10T14:31:07.237+08:00Stock market crashStock market crash<br /><br /> <br />Black Monday (1987) on the Dow Jones Industrial Average<br />A stock market crash is a sudden dramatic decline of stock prices across a significant cross-section of a stock market. Crashes are driven by panic as much as by underlying economic factors. They often follow speculative stock market bubbles.<br />Stock market crashes are social phenomena where external economic events combine with crowd behaviour and psychology in a positive feedback loop where selling by some market participants drives more market participants to sell. Generally speaking, crashes usually occur under the following conditions: a prolonged period of rising stock prices and excessive economic optimism, a market where P/E ratios exceed long-term averages, and extensive use of margin debt and leverage by market participants.<br />There is no numerically-specific definition of a crash but the term commonly applies to steep double-digit percentage losses in a stock market index over a period of several days. Crashes are often distinguished from bear markets by panic selling and abrupt, dramatic price declines. Bear markets are periods of declining stock market prices that are measured in months or years. While crashes are often associated with bear markets, they do not necessarily go hand in hand. The crash of 1987 for example did not lead to a bear market. Likewise, the Japanese Nikkei bear market of the 1990s occurred over several years without any notable crashes.<br /><br />Wall Street Crash of 1929<br />Main article: Wall Street Crash of 1929<br />The most famous crash, the Wall Street Crash of 1929, happened on October 29, 1929. The economy had been growing robustly for most of the so-called Roaring Twenties. It was a technological golden age as innovations such as radio, automobiles, aviation, telephone and the power grid were deployed and adopted. Companies who had pioneered these advances like Radio Corporation of America (RCA), and General Motors saw their stocks soar. Financial corporations also did well as Wall Street bankers floated mutual fund companies (then known as investment trusts) like the Goldman Sachs Trading Corporation. Investors were infatuated with the returns available in the stock market especially with the use of leverage through margin debt. On August 24, 1921, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at a value of 63.9. By September 3, 1929, it had risen more than sixfold, touching 381.2. It would not regain this level for another twenty five years. Even during the summer of that year it was clear that the economy was contracting and the stock market soon went through a series of unsettling price declines in early October. These declines fed investor anxiety and events soon came to a head. October 24 (known as Black Thursday) was the first in a number of increasingly shocking market drops. This was followed swiftly by Black Monday on October 28 and Black Tuesday on October 29.<br />On Black Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 38 points to 260, a drop of 12.8%. The deluge of selling overwhelmed the ticker tape system that normally gave investors the current prices of their shares. Telephone lines and telegraphs were clogged and were unable to cope. This information vacuum only led to more fear and panic. The technology of the New Era, much celebrated by investors previously, now served to deepen their suffering.<br />Black Tuesday was a day of chaos. Forced to liquidate their stocks because of margin calls, overextended investors flooded the exchange with sell orders. The glamour stocks of the age saw their values plummet. Radio Corporation plunged from $40.25 to $26 in the first two hours of trading (down $75 from its historic peak). The Goldman Sachs Trading Corporation opened at 60 and closed at 35. The First National Bank of New York declined from $5200 to $1600.[1] Across the two days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 23%.<br />By the end of the week of November 11, the index stood at 228, a cumulative drop of 40 percent from the September high. The markets rallied in succeeding months but it would be a false recovery that led unsuspecting investors into the worst economic crisis of modern times.<br />Although it is popularly believed that the Crash inflicted heavy financial loss on investors during this period, the Great Depression which followed was far more terrible. While the Crash dealt a severe blow to many a stockholder's portfolio, the Great Depression brought obliteration and bankruptcy. Before it was over, the Dow Jones Industrial Average would lose 89% of its value before finally bottoming out in July 1932.<br />The Crash of 1987<br />Main article: Black Monday (1987)<br />The mid-1980s were a time of strong economic optimism. From August 1982 to its peak in August 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) grew from 776 to 2722. The rise in market indices for the 19 largest markets in the world averaged 296 percent during this period. The average number of shares traded on the NYSE had risen from 65 million shares to 181 million shares.[2].<br />The crash on October 19, 1987, a date that is also known as Black Monday, was the climactic culmination of a market decline that had begun five days before on October 14th. The DJIA fell 3.81 percent on October 14, followed by another 4.60 percent drop on Friday October 15th. But this was nothing compared to what lay ahead when markets opened on the subsequent Monday. On Black Monday, the Dow Jones Industrials Average plummeted 508 points, losing 22.6% of its value in one day. The S&P 500 dropped 20.4%, falling from 282.7 to 225.06. The NASDAQ orders, many stocks on the NYSE faced trading halts and delays. Of the 2,257 NYSE-listed stocks, there were 195 trading delays and halts during the day. [3] The NASDAQ market fared much worse. Because of its reliance on a "market making" system that allowed market makers to withdraw from trading, liquidity in NASDAQ stocks dried up. Trading in many stocks encountered a pathological condition where the ask price for a stock exceeded the bid price. These "locked" conditions severely curtailed trading. On October 19th, trading in Microsoft shares on the NASDAQ lasted a total of 54 minutes.<br />The Crash was the greatest single-day loss that Wall Street had ever suffered in continuous trading up to that point. Between the start of trading on October 14th to the close on October 19, the DJIA lost 760 points, a decline of over 31 percent.<br />The 1987 Crash was a worldwide phenomenon. The FTSE 100 Index lost 10.8% on that Monday and a further 12.2% the following day. In the month of October, all major world markets declined substantially. The least affected was Austria (a fall of 11.4%) while the most affected was Hong Kong with a drop of 45.8%. Out of 23 major industrial countries, 19 had a decline greater than 20%.[4]<br />Despite fears of a repeat of the 1930s Depression, the market rallied immediately after the crash, posting a record one-day gain of 102.27 the very next day and 186.64 points on Thursday October 22. It took only two years for the Dow to recover completely; by September of 1989, the market had regained all of the value it had lost in the 1987 crash.<br />No definitive conclusions have been reached on the reasons behind the 1987 Crash. Stocks had been in a multi-year bull run and market P/E ratios in the U.S. were above the post-war average. The S&P 500 was trading at 23 times earnings, a postwar high and well above the average of 14.5 times earnings. [5] Herd behavior and psychological feedback loops play a critical part in all stock market crashes but analysts have also tried to look for external triggering events. Aside from the general worries of stock market overvaluation, blame for the collapse has been apportioned to such factors as program trading, portfolio insurance and derivatives, and prior news of worsening economic indicators (i.e. a large U.S. merchandise trade deficit and a falling U.S. dollar which seemed to imply future interest rate hikes).[6] .<br />One of the consequences of the 1987 Crash was *the introduction of the circuit breaker or trading curb on the NYSE. Based upon the idea that a cooling off period would help dissipate investor panic, these mandatory market shutdowns are triggered whenever a large pre-defined market decline occurs during the trading day.<br />Mathematical theory of stock market crashes<br />The mathematical characterisation of stock market movements has been a subject of intense interest. The conventional assumption that stock markets behave according to a random Gaussian or normal distribution is incorrect. Large movements in prices (i.e. crashes) are much more common than would be predicted in a normal distribution. Research at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology shows that there is evidence that the frequency of stock market crashes follow an inverse cubic power law.[1]. This and other studies suggest that stock market crashes are a sign of self-organized criticality in financial markets. In 1963, Benoît Mandelbrot proposed [7] that instead of following a strict random walk, stock price variations executed a Lévy flight. A Lévy flight is a random walk which is occasionally disrupted by large movements. In 1995, Rosario Mantegna and Gene Stanley [8] analyzed a million records of the S&P 500 market index, calculating the returns over a five year period. Their conclusion was that stock market returns are more volatile than a Gaussian distribution but less volatile than a Lévy flight.<br />Researchers continue to study this theory, particularly using computer simulation of crowd behaviour, and the applicability of models to reproduce crash-like phenomena.leeyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268934698420770132noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8888762388764611934.post-87638200219016482492007-08-10T14:27:00.001+08:002007-08-10T14:29:20.631+08:00Why I am fail in investing in Bursa Malaysia?<h3 class="post-title">Current instable in market let us revisit the experience I learn and post somewhere last year in other forum.<br /> </h3> <p> </p>The purpose of the article is share my fail experience to all to avoid you continous losing money in your investing career. Regardless where you are and who you are.<br /><br />1. Don’t Ever Think of borrow money or bank loan or bank overdraft , Market fluctuation will make u crazy and heart attack<br />2. Don’t invest in warrant. Or anything so call tools for financing. Unless you are gambler (for gambler advice you go casino, atleast the change is 50% to 50%). The only exception is you are rich enough and holding substantial volume of that counters.<br />3. Don’t ever invest in small cap with no strong background (Big Cap holding or rich man holding). Only permissible when they are trace records .<br />4. Don’t ever buy at first day of IPO of any stocks, the change going south after first day is 80% (don’t believe, try yourself)<br />5. Don’t ever think of speculate or listening to rumours.<br />6. Don’t trust any body or word from any body, only trust yourself, of course you must prepare yourself before you can trust yourself.<br />7. Don’t try to win the market , you only can follow the market except you are riches can control that particular counter (syndicate).<br />8. Only invest in high growing, potential sector counter, don’t go again market.<br />9. Only Buy Big Cap with strong branding or industries with inelastic demand<br />10. Only buy with any high dividend counters, money won’t cheat you.<br />11. Don't invest in "IT stocks", The industries is highly competitir and you may win 50% over nite or you may lost whole at last, Good example is AKN MSG , Redtones.. high may be 3.00 now only 30 cent. just imagine you left 10% after all, I am not pin point to any counter at the movement,. Just for sharing.<br />12. Don't invests in sector you donno or you don't know how the Company operation.<br />13. Don't buy the stocks which you donno the owner!.<br />14. Don't buy the industries, highly dependance on Raw Material Price and Highly dependence of few customers<br />15.buy small caps only when they got strong owners or big caps subsidiary.leeyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268934698420770132noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8888762388764611934.post-69212455379044969192007-07-11T14:11:00.000+08:002007-07-11T14:14:25.379+08:00Froegin call warrant updated as at 11 jul 2007 12.30 pmThere is lot of hot topic on bursa for foreign warrant, especially those with hk stock exchange up like rocket. other underlying share may perform well, I expect some of them may perform well, namely cccc and the Hwl both mother share may be come coming star for hk exchange.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /> <table str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 808pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="1074"><col style="width: 86pt;" width="115"> <col style="width: 38pt;" width="50"> <col style="width: 38pt;" width="51"> <col style="width: 46pt;" width="61"> <col style="width: 55pt;" width="73"> <col style="width: 56pt;" width="74"> <col style="width: 76pt;" width="101"> <col style="width: 71pt;" width="95"> <col style="width: 58pt;" width="77"> <col style="width: 53pt;" width="70"> <col style="width: 59pt;" width="78"> <col style="width: 56pt;" width="75"> <col style="width: 54pt;" width="72"> <col style="width: 62pt;" width="82"> <tbody><tr style="height: 30pt;" height="40"> <td class="xl25" style="height: 30pt; width: 86pt;" height="40" width="115"> </td> <td class="xl26" style="width: 38pt;" width="50"> </td> <td colspan="2" class="xl55" style="width: 84pt;" width="112">Exercise Price</td> <td class="xl26" style="width: 55pt;" width="73">Exercise</td> <td class="xl26" style="width: 56pt;" str="Expiry " width="74">Expiry </td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 76pt;" width="101">Underlying Price</td> <td class="xl28" style="width: 71pt;" width="95">CW Price@ 20070711</td> <td class="xl29" style="width: 58pt;" width="77">Warrant</td> <td class="xl29" style="width: 53pt;" width="70"> </td> <td class="xl29" style="width: 59pt;" width="78"> </td> <td class="xl30" style="width: 56pt;" width="75"> </td> <td rowspan="2" class="xl56" style="width: 54pt;" width="72">+/-(RM)</td> <td class="xl30" style="width: 62pt;" width="82"> </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl31" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">CW</td> <td class="xl32">Code</td> <td class="xl33">RM</td> <td class="xl33">HK$</td> <td class="xl33">Ratio</td> <td class="xl33">Date</td> <td class="xl34">@20070709</td> <td class="xl35">(RM)</td> <td class="xl33">Price</td> <td class="xl33"> </td> <td class="xl33">Premium</td> <td class="xl35">IPO (RM)</td> <td class="xl36">+/- (%)</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl37" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">BOC-C1</td> <td class="xl38" num="">3988</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">1.84</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">4.18</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">2</td> <td class="xl39" num="39467" align="right">20/01/08</td> <td class="xl40" num="1.9603524229074891" align="right">1.96035242</td> <td class="xl41" num="" align="right">4.45</td> <td class="xl42" num="00.13" align="right">0.130</td> <td class="xl42" num="4.7702" align="right">4.770</td> <td class="xl43" num="7.195505617977524E-2" fmla="=(J3-H3)/H3" align="right">7.20%</td> <td class="xl44" num="00.1" align="right">0.100</td> <td class="xl45" style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;" num="00.03" fmla="=I3-L3" align="right">0.030</td> <td class="xl46" style="border-top: medium none;" num="00.3" fmla="=M3/L3" align="right">30.00%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl37" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">CCCC-C1</td> <td class="xl38" num="">1800</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">5.81</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">13.2</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">5</td> <td class="xl39" num="39467" align="right">20/01/08</td> <td class="xl40" num="7.6123348017621151" align="right">7.6123348</td> <td class="xl41" num="" align="right">17.28</td> <td class="xl42" num="0.375" align="right">0.375</td> <td class="xl42" num="17.456250000000001" align="right">17.456</td> <td class="xl43" num="1.0199652777777547E-2" fmla="=(J4-H4)/H4" align="right">1.02%</td> <td class="xl44" num="00.15" align="right">0.150</td> <td class="xl47" style="border-left: medium none;" num="0.22500000000000001" fmla="=I4-L4" align="right">0.225</td> <td class="xl48" num="1.5" fmla="=M4/L4" align="right">150.00%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl37" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">CHLIFE</td> <td class="xl38" num="">2628</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">11.1</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">25.23</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">10</td> <td class="xl39" num="39454" align="right">07/01/08</td> <td class="xl40" num="13.458149779735683" align="right">13.4581498</td> <td class="xl41" num="" align="right">30.55</td> <td class="xl42" num="00.33" align="right">0.330</td> <td class="xl42" num="32.721000000000004" align="right">32.721</td> <td class="xl43" num="7.1063829787234134E-2" fmla="=(J5-H5)/H5" align="right">7.11%</td> <td class="xl44" num="0.19500000000000001" align="right">0.195</td> <td class="xl47" style="border-left: medium none;" num="0.13500000000000001" fmla="=I5-L5" align="right">0.135</td> <td class="xl48" num="0.69230769230769229" fmla="=M5/L5" align="right">69.23%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl37" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">CHMOBIL-C1</td> <td class="xl38">0941</td> <td class="xl24" num="33.48" align="right">33.5</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">76.1</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">50</td> <td class="xl39" num="39499" align="right">21/02/08</td> <td class="xl40" num="37.929515418502199" align="right">37.9295154</td> <td class="xl41" num="" align="right">86.1</td> <td class="xl42" num="0.155" align="right">0.155</td> <td class="xl42" num="93.692499999999995" align="right">93.693</td> <td class="xl43" num="8.81823461091754E-2" fmla="=(J6-H6)/H6" align="right">8.82%</td> <td class="xl44" num="00.1" align="right">0.100</td> <td class="xl47" style="border-left: medium none;" num="5.5E-2" fmla="=I6-L6" align="right">0.055</td> <td class="xl48" num="00.55" fmla="=M6/L6" align="right">55.00%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl37" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">CHMOBIL-C3</td> <td class="xl38">0941</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">32</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">72.73</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">10</td> <td class="xl39" num="39446" align="right">30/12/07</td> <td class="xl40" num="37.929515418502199" align="right">37.9295154</td> <td class="xl41" num="" fmla="=H6" align="right">86.1</td> <td class="xl42" num="0.81499999999999995" align="right">0.815</td> <td class="xl42" num="91.230500000000006" align="right">91.231</td> <td class="xl43" num="5.9587688734030343E-2" fmla="=(J7-H7)/H7" align="right">5.96%</td> <td class="xl44" num="00.53" align="right">0.530</td> <td class="xl47" style="border-left: medium none;" num="0.28499999999999998" fmla="=I7-L7" align="right">0.285</td> <td class="xl48" num="0.53773584905660354" fmla="=M7/L7" align="right">53.77%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl37" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">HKEX-C1</td> <td class="xl38">0388</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">37</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">84.09</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">10</td> <td class="xl39" num="39446" align="right">30/12/07</td> <td class="xl40" num="58.14977973568282" align="right">58.1497797</td> <td class="xl41" num="" align="right">132</td> <td class="xl42" num="" align="right">2.330</td> <td class="xl42" num="136.98099999999999" align="right">136.981</td> <td class="xl43" num="3.7734848484848441E-2" fmla="=(J8-H8)/H8" align="right">3.77%</td> <td class="xl44" num="0.63500000000000001" align="right">0.635</td> <td class="xl47" style="border-left: medium none;" num="1.6950000000000001" fmla="=I8-L8" align="right">1.695</td> <td class="xl48" num="2.6692913385826773" fmla="=M8/L8" align="right">266.93%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl37" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">HSBC-C1</td> <td class="xl38">0005</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">65</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">147.73</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">10</td> <td class="xl39" num="39441" align="right">25/12/07</td> <td class="xl40" num="63.52422907488986" align="right">63.5242291</td> <td class="xl41" num="" align="right">144.2</td> <td class="xl42" num="00.31" align="right">0.310</td> <td class="xl42" num="154.767" align="right">154.767</td> <td class="xl43" num="7.3280166435506292E-2" fmla="=(J9-H9)/H9" align="right">7.33%</td> <td class="xl44" num="00.63" align="right">0.630</td> <td class="xl47" style="border-left: medium none;" num="-00.32" fmla="=I9-L9" align="right">-0.320</td> <td class="xl48" num="-0.50793650793650791" fmla="=M9/L9" align="right">-50.79%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl37" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">HWL-C1</td> <td class="xl38">0013</td> <td class="xl24" num="34.25" align="right">34.3</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">77.84</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">10</td> <td class="xl39" num="39438" align="right">22/12/07</td> <td class="xl40" num="37.885462555066077" align="right">37.8854626</td> <td class="xl41" num="" align="right">86</td> <td class="xl42" num="0.47499999999999998" align="right">0.475</td> <td class="xl42" num="88.622500000000002" align="right">88.623</td> <td class="xl43" num="3.0494186046511655E-2" fmla="=(J10-H10)/H10" align="right">3.05%</td> <td class="xl44" num="0.39300000000000002" align="right">0.393</td> <td class="xl47" style="border-left: medium none;" num="8.1999999999999962E-2" fmla="=I10-L10" align="right">0.082</td> <td class="xl48" num="0.20865139949109404" fmla="=M10/L10" align="right">20.87%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl37" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">ICBC-C1</td> <td class="xl38">1398</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">1.93</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">4.38</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">2</td> <td class="xl39" num="39499" align="right">21/02/08</td> <td class="xl40" num="2.1762114537444934" align="right">2.17621145</td> <td class="xl41" num="" align="right">4.94</td> <td class="xl42" num="00.16" align="right">0.160</td> <td class="xl42" num="5.1063999999999998" align="right">5.106</td> <td class="xl43" num="3.3684210526315671E-2" fmla="=(J11-H11)/H11" align="right">3.37%</td> <td class="xl44" num="00.12" align="right">0.120</td> <td class="xl47" style="border-left: medium none;" num="00.04" fmla="=I11-L11" align="right">0.040</td> <td class="xl48" num="0.33333333333333343" fmla="=M11/L11" align="right">33.33%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl37" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">ICBC-C3</td> <td class="xl38" num="">1398</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">1.93</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">4.39</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">2</td> <td class="xl39" num="39438" align="right">22/12/07</td> <td class="xl40" num="2.1762114537444934" align="right">2.17621145</td> <td class="xl41" num="" fmla="=H11" align="right">4.94</td> <td class="xl42" num="0.13500000000000001" align="right">0.135</td> <td class="xl42" num="5.0028999999999995" align="right">5.003</td> <td class="xl43" num="1.2732793522267017E-2" fmla="=(J12-H12)/H12" align="right">1.27%</td> <td class="xl44" num="0.13400000000000001" align="right">0.134</td> <td class="xl47" style="border-left: medium none;" num="1.0000000000000009E-3" fmla="=I12-L12" align="right">0.001</td> <td class="xl48" num="7.462686567164185E-3" fmla="=M12/L12" align="right">0.75%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl37" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">PETROCH-C1</td> <td class="xl38">0857</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">4.58</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">10.4</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">5</td> <td class="xl39" num="39499" align="right">21/02/08</td> <td class="xl40" num="5.392070484581498" align="right">5.39207048</td> <td class="xl41" num="" align="right">12.24</td> <td class="xl42" num="0.245" align="right">0.245</td> <td class="xl42" num="13.18075" align="right">13.181</td> <td class="xl43" num="7.6858660130718917E-2" fmla="=(J13-H13)/H13" align="right">7.69%</td> <td class="xl44" num="00.11" align="right">0.110</td> <td class="xl47" style="border-left: medium none;" num="0.13500000000000001" fmla="=I13-L13" align="right">0.135</td> <td class="xl48" num="1.2272727272727273" fmla="=M13/L13" align="right">122.73%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl37" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">PETROCH-C3</td> <td class="xl38">0857</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">4.7</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">10.68</td> <td class="xl24" num="" align="right">5</td> <td class="xl39" num="39454" align="right">07/01/08</td> <td class="xl40" num="5.392070484581498" align="right">5.39207048</td> <td class="xl41" num="" fmla="=H13" align="right">12.24</td> <td class="xl42" num="00.22" align="right">0.220</td> <td class="xl42" num="13.177" align="right">13.177</td> <td class="xl43" num="7.6552287581699296E-2" fmla="=(J14-H14)/H14" align="right">7.66%</td> <td class="xl44" num="0.125" align="right">0.125</td> <td class="xl47" style="border-left: medium none;" num="9.5000000000000001E-2" fmla="=I14-L14" align="right">0.095</td> <td class="xl48" num="00.76" fmla="=M14/L14" align="right">76.00%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl31" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">SINOPEC-C1</td> <td class="xl33">0386</td> <td class="xl32" num="" align="right">3.96</td> <td class="xl32" num="" align="right">9</td> <td class="xl32" num="" align="right">5</td> <td class="xl49" num="39467" align="right">20/01/08</td> <td class="xl40" num="3.9427312775330394" align="right">3.94273128</td> <td class="xl36" num="" align="right">8.95</td> <td class="xl50" num="00.14" align="right">0.140</td> <td class="xl50" num="10.589" align="right">10.589</td> <td class="xl51" num="0.18312849162011188" fmla="=(J15-H15)/H15" align="right">18.31%</td> <td class="xl52" num="00.13" align="right">0.130</td> <td class="xl53" style="border-left: medium none;" num="00.01" fmla="=I15-L15" align="right">0.010</td> <td class="xl54" num="7.6923076923076983E-2" fmla="=M15/L15" align="right">7.69%</td> </tr> </tbody></table>leeyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268934698420770132noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8888762388764611934.post-11741365525606050312007-06-04T10:50:00.000+08:002007-06-04T10:51:58.135+08:00WINNER AND LOSSER<p>In the late 1800s, Daniel Drew proposed that investors 'Cut your losses and let your profits run.' This forever after became one of the most commonly quoted theories for investors. Most consider it a sound concept; in fact, it is one of the most important understandings an investor can have about the stock market. But one obvious question leaps from this theory-- exactly what is a '<em>winner</em>' and what is a '<em>loser</em>'? </p><br /><p>Is any stock that drops in price a loser? A price drop certainly costs an investor money-- at least on paper. But selling every stock when its price falls a bit will be irrational and expensive, so another definition of 'loser' is required for this theory. A good place to start is to determine if the price fall is a result of an overall market decline (a bear market), or due to specific concerns about the particular industry or company. </p> <br /><p>Most investors look for the following telltale signs of concern to determine if a particular stock might become a 'loser':</p> <ul><li>Declining sales quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year</li><li>Rising debt levels</li><li>Declining profit margins</li><li>Rising inventory levels</li><li>Changes in regulatory or legal environment</li><li>Emerging competitiors or technologies</li><li>Rising interest rates</li><li>An emerging overall bear market</li><li>Events that negatively impact future earnings</li><li>Mergers and acquisitions</li><li>Management changes</li><li>Institutional or insider selling</li><li>Dividend cut or elimination</li><li>Concerns over accounting procedures</li></ul>leeyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268934698420770132noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8888762388764611934.post-36345204385453699462007-05-18T10:02:00.000+08:002007-05-18T10:25:12.475+08:00Why Equine Capital been selected as target take over?<b>PROFILE BRIEF</b><br />Equine Capital Berhad is an investment holding and its subsidiaries are engaged in the property development activities<br /> 2004 2005 2006<br /><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td class="text" align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Operating Margin</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">18.56</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">32.06</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">21.47</td></tr><tr bg style="color:#efefd1;"><td class="text" align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Return on Equity Capital</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">7.93</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">12.44</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">6.34</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td class="text" align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Net Profit Margin</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">10.8</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">22.12</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">13.07</td></tr><tr bg style="color:#efefd1;"><td class="text" align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Current Ratio</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">1.15</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">1.26</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">1.92</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td class="text" align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Debt to Capital at Book</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">0.22</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">0.17</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">0.23</td></tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td class="text" align="left" nowrap="nowrap"> Turnover/Net Sales</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">86,366</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">140,437</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">131,026</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#efefd1"><td class="text" align="left" nowrap="nowrap">EBITDA</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">16,580</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">46,017</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">23,263</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td class="text" align="left" nowrap="nowrap">EBIT</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">15,930</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">44,739</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">21,754</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#efefd1"><td class="text" align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Net Profit</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">9,325</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">31,060</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">17,131</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td class="text" align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Ordinary Dividend</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">0</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">0</td><td class="text" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">-2,700</td></tr><tr><td> </td></tr></tbody></table>result for 2006<br /><table style="font-family: verdana,Arial,Helvetica; font-size: 8pt;" border="0" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="0" width="98%"><tbody><tr style="font-family: MS Sans Serif,Arial,Helvetica; font-size: 8pt; font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#dfdf9f"><td colspan="2" align="center">Announcement<br />Date</td><td colspan="2" align="center">Financial<br />Yr. End</td><td align="center">Qtr</td><td colspan="2" align="center">Period End</td><td colspan="2" align="center">Revenue<br />RM '000</td><td colspan="2" align="center">Profit/Lost<br />RM'000</td><td colspan="2" align="center">EPS</td><td align="center">Amended</td></tr><tr><td align="right" nowrap="nowrap"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;">17-May-07</span></td><td width="6%"><br /></td> <td align="right" nowrap="nowrap"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;">31-Mar-07</span></td><td width="3%"><br /></td> <td align="center"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;">4</span></td> <td align="right" nowrap="nowrap"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;">31-Mar-07</span></td><td width="3%"><br /></td> <td align="right"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;">25,187</span></td><td width="3%"><br /></td> <td align="right"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;">1,081</span></td><td width="3%"><br /></td> <td align="right"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;">0.72</span></td><td width="3%"><br /></td> <td align="center"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;"> - </span></td></tr> <tr bgcolor="#efefd1"><td align="right" nowrap="nowrap"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;">12-Feb-07</span></td><td width="6%"><br /></td> <td align="right" nowrap="nowrap"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;">31-Mar-07</span></td><td width="3%"><br /></td> <td align="center"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;">3</span></td> <td align="right" nowrap="nowrap"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;">31-Dec-06</span></td><td width="3%"><br /></td> <td align="right"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;">14,252</span></td><td width="3%"><br /></td> <td align="right"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;">512</span></td><td width="3%"><br /></td> <td align="right"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;">0.34</span></td><td width="3%"><br /></td> <td align="center"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;"> - </span></td></tr> <tr><td align="right" nowrap="nowrap"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;">13-Nov-06</span></td><td width="6%"><br /></td> <td align="right" nowrap="nowrap"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;">31-Mar-07</span></td><td width="3%"><br /></td> <td align="center"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;">2</span></td> <td align="right" nowrap="nowrap"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;">30-Sep-06</span></td><td width="3%"><br /></td> <td align="right"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;">17,670</span></td><td width="3%"><br /></td> <td align="right"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;">1,910</span></td><td width="3%"><br /></td> <td align="right"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;">1.27</span></td><td width="3%"><br /></td> <td align="center"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;"> - </span></td></tr> <tr bgcolor="#efefd1"><td align="right" nowrap="nowrap"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;">16-Aug-06</span></td><td width="6%"><br /></td> <td align="right" nowrap="nowrap"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;">31-Mar-07</span></td><td width="3%"><br /></td> <td align="center"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;">1</span></td> <td align="right" nowrap="nowrap"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;">30-Jun-06</span></td><td width="3%"><br /></td> <td align="right"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;">19,411</span></td><td width="3%"><br /></td> <td align="right"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;">53</span></td><td width="3%"><br /></td> <td align="right"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;">0.04</span></td><td width="3%"><br /></td> <td align="center"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:-2;"> - </span></td></tr> </tbody></table> <div style="position: absolute; visibility: visible; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); z-index: 101; width: 767px; height: 22px; top: 150px; left: 1px;"><div style="overflow: hidden; position: absolute; visibility: inherit; cursor: default; background-color: rgb(51, 102, 153); color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: arial,comic sans ms,technical; font-size: 11px; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; text-align: center; width: 172px; height: 18px; padding-left: 8px; padding-top: 2px; left: 63px; top: 1px;">Market Watch</div><div style="overflow: hidden; position: absolute; visibility: inherit; cursor: default; background-color: rgb(51, 102, 153); color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: arial,comic sans ms,technical; font-size: 11px; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; text-align: center; width: 212px; height: 18px; padding-left: 8px; padding-top: 2px; left: 244px; top: 1px;">Market Intelligence</div><div style="overflow: hidden; position: absolute; visibility: inherit; cursor: pointer; background-color: rgb(51, 102, 153); color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: arial,comic sans ms,technical; font-size: 11px; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; text-align: center; width: 142px; height: 18px; padding-left: 8px; padding-top: 2px; left: 465px; top: 1px;">BizWeek</div><div style="overflow: hidden; position: absolute; visibility: inherit; cursor: pointer; background-color: rgb(51, 102, 153); color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: arial,comic sans ms,technical; font-size: 11px; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; text-align: center; width: 142px; height: 18px; padding-left: 8px; padding-top: 2px; left: 616px; top: 1px;">Maritime</div></div> <!-- End of BUSINESS main table --><!-- v10 footer--> <br /><br />The financial resuit can saisd is decreasing over the year, but the price up from dec low 41 cent to current 180 cent ++ .What is the reason behind ? When you read through the financial statement, The only reason is due to highly liquidity of the stock, according to filing on bursa on latest december 2006, 72% of share is holding by public who hold more than 100 share.<br /><br />Recent development see the lion capital , Great eastern merge as bigger share holder, I can see that OCBC may not become major shareholder of the co (14% through about 2 arms). lastly appointment of news Director that backgroud related to ocbc may see the futher development.<br /><br />Why OCBC want to take over such small cap in bursa? If you read in the last Annual Report. The company own some value land in petaling jaya area ( more than 100 hektar). Otherwise i don't see any reason why they want this company.<br /><br />Liquidity is one of the reason why investors taste for invests. For Bursa neeed work hard on that. Many Big cap still holding by government.leeyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268934698420770132noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8888762388764611934.post-54794338387605902002007-04-14T10:30:00.000+08:002007-04-14T10:32:27.653+08:00Shanghai future open at May 2007, Beware friendShanghai index up from 1 000 to current 3 500, and their future market is open soon, any gambling activities to short sale the index, will be damages to shanghai market.<br /><br />So remember be aware of coming May, this may affect our market too.leeyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268934698420770132noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8888762388764611934.post-90502106044447902322007-03-08T11:55:00.000+08:002007-03-08T11:57:07.423+08:00New Strategy needed<img src="file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/KWLim/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/moz-screenshot-2.jpg" alt="" /><h3 class="post-title"><br /></h3> <div class="post-body"> <p> </p>Our market has re-bounded in line with other regional markets. These markets have obviously benefited from a 120-point re-bounce for Dow Jones Industrial Index overnight. Today's trading has been fairly brisk. Before we get carried away, let's look at some of the other global equity markets and their present precarious technical position.<br /><br />Dow Jones Industrial Index.<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7xDWhyphenhyphenm5F8hupnlduh0f98KTX-c6QhdkVGOCAAIH2xJgx2I7KTmNXlJ4LMPxnNed9PZupxBNq0ch5oHA5JwS325xvJ0Hu87rCmwoRxugZ1h0w9Y4doP9s6Zl_YJeH907zGVy7OwqndNLl/s1600-h/DJIA+20070306.GIF"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5039184685234216258" style="cursor: pointer;" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7xDWhyphenhyphenm5F8hupnlduh0f98KTX-c6QhdkVGOCAAIH2xJgx2I7KTmNXlJ4LMPxnNed9PZupxBNq0ch5oHA5JwS325xvJ0Hu87rCmwoRxugZ1h0w9Y4doP9s6Zl_YJeH907zGVy7OwqndNLl/s320/DJIA+20070306.GIF" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><p class="MsoNormal">London's FTSE Index.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjA5kLuC_Srh2aRdvIJGqB51JnIdu7cKIcWOVuPqnP3AFZM0bfn6h8SjejUFbA3Uwl0dzTd_yn-kjBGnyyAPmtKhllZ8bRO3wnqJhcYZX6AFJ2VlKUUi4RUHWiBY1UvYDGqEWxGMsUt459y/s1600-h/FTSE+20070307.GIF"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5039184290097224962" style="cursor: pointer;" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjA5kLuC_Srh2aRdvIJGqB51JnIdu7cKIcWOVuPqnP3AFZM0bfn6h8SjejUFbA3Uwl0dzTd_yn-kjBGnyyAPmtKhllZ8bRO3wnqJhcYZX6AFJ2VlKUUi4RUHWiBY1UvYDGqEWxGMsUt459y/s320/FTSE+20070307.GIF" border="0" /></a></p><br />Bombay's BSE Index.<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3FOHMrmkk3ZQ9acJ-YXVZUNnv63FmxMQharutWma57MQjvBYd4IsZhI3w2t5jN_0n6LFWx8yLpyDp9wKWUS50Xm1nPvt9bd0zbx8zUbjOW4PQNVNXIPLRtP9fZlZ3NN67GgaRl_I6IT9U/s1600-h/BSE+20070307.GIF"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5039184771133562194" style="cursor: pointer;" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3FOHMrmkk3ZQ9acJ-YXVZUNnv63FmxMQharutWma57MQjvBYd4IsZhI3w2t5jN_0n6LFWx8yLpyDp9wKWUS50Xm1nPvt9bd0zbx8zUbjOW4PQNVNXIPLRtP9fZlZ3NN67GgaRl_I6IT9U/s320/BSE+20070307.GIF" border="0" /></a><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><br />Hang Seng index.<br /></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjSFD0Fpr3G9CMMjnuKUOb8v428zio36sYhcFPVxFZxLcdc5Om-4BNply8E9o_zLNIYMiWDQsquCWjRb4aRpw86SA6p9Ff-gA6pfQNwT7PgZg4iyl3JHUrXgmrMcH12-DKYoT3bRSixHjF/s1600-h/Hang+Seng+20070307.GIF"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5039184595039903026" style="cursor: pointer;" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjSFD0Fpr3G9CMMjnuKUOb8v428zio36sYhcFPVxFZxLcdc5Om-4BNply8E9o_zLNIYMiWDQsquCWjRb4aRpw86SA6p9Ff-gA6pfQNwT7PgZg4iyl3JHUrXgmrMcH12-DKYoT3bRSixHjF/s320/Hang+Seng+20070307.GIF" border="0" /></a></p> <p class="MsoNormal">All the above indices have clearly broken below their uptrend line. The following indices are at their uptrend line or just tested & re-bounded from their uptrend line. This includes Shanghai's SSE Index (surprice?).<br /></p><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3pZ0R5bVE0EH7SGQDcyN0yO1I111dPRbXWxutkZzNhC8p4y3mf43g-rWr6z3aJrkd-UYVW2Yhbvnj30GpzfXkfgVvlO8hmLG8Bh6LTJ6_Y7TKH7xFSEBKidKlDzkbuAGQK7LfnE75ocDx/s1600-h/SSE+20070307.GIF"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5039184500550622498" style="cursor: pointer;" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3pZ0R5bVE0EH7SGQDcyN0yO1I111dPRbXWxutkZzNhC8p4y3mf43g-rWr6z3aJrkd-UYVW2Yhbvnj30GpzfXkfgVvlO8hmLG8Bh6LTJ6_Y7TKH7xFSEBKidKlDzkbuAGQK7LfnE75ocDx/s320/SSE+20070307.GIF" border="0" /></a><br /><br />And, Nikkei 225 Index.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh56Pp8kUDCaPQFJAicAmLPggY0f61ouFRgIePZFoPD-T4n8zUS6ANv6MoCZ-XhvXmPW2MNCCu3EqeGBhzlnKNC9N6GLKWnKLCRHhRBBLYvVaetFoUXMgnQ041u6n8ZUb8W0age_IHpCjh4/s1600-h/Nikkei+225+20070307.GIF"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5039184401766374674" style="cursor: pointer;" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh56Pp8kUDCaPQFJAicAmLPggY0f61ouFRgIePZFoPD-T4n8zUS6ANv6MoCZ-XhvXmPW2MNCCu3EqeGBhzlnKNC9N6GLKWnKLCRHhRBBLYvVaetFoUXMgnQ041u6n8ZUb8W0age_IHpCjh4/s320/Nikkei+225+20070307.GIF" border="0" /></a><br /><br />From the above, I believe that the worst in the global equity market may not be over yet. For those who have large position in the market, my recommendation is to reduce your position as the current re-bounce goes higher. For example, if you have a sizable position in Tenaga, you may want to use the current re-bounce to reduce your holding of Tenaga if its share price reaches RM11.70-12.00. If you manage to do so, you can buy back the same amount of Tenaga shares if its share price weakened back to its medium-term uptrend line support at RM10.20/30 (see the chart below).<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiVwJqGO5dtYOcxoUioSzdX_yyxYvI_ydpmX4WsYAgXseuUu0HKaLDZXX737756xm7erL53sMcXY_Hyqd5zqgBGSKeKgfi0byozGMUTMvyqZ7Ayh9OJbPz-ROVbAaPs0Q9gFM4yoA8G_9e/s1600-h/Tenaga+d20070307.GIF"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5039175283550805218" style="cursor: pointer;" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiVwJqGO5dtYOcxoUioSzdX_yyxYvI_ydpmX4WsYAgXseuUu0HKaLDZXX737756xm7erL53sMcXY_Hyqd5zqgBGSKeKgfi0byozGMUTMvyqZ7Ayh9OJbPz-ROVbAaPs0Q9gFM4yoA8G_9e/s320/Tenaga+d20070307.GIF" border="0" /></a><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Chart: Tenaga's daily chart as at March 6, 2007<br /><br /></span>Nobody is sure exactly where the market is at this moment. Here, an amusing look at one possible scenario of the next market direction.<span style="font-style: italic;"><br /></span><br /></div><img src="file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/KWLim/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/moz-screenshot.jpg" alt="" /><img src="file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/KWLim/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/moz-screenshot-1.jpg" alt="" />leeyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268934698420770132noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8888762388764611934.post-36883731781798933632007-03-02T14:29:00.000+08:002007-03-02T14:30:25.912+08:00All eyes on the Shanghai Stock Exchange CI<h3 class="post-title"> All eyes on the Shanghai Stock Exchange CI </h3> <div class="post-body"> <p> </p>Many were not aware of the raging bull in the Shanghai stock market until the recent rude awakening. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index ('SSECI') has gained nearly 100% in 6 months, from just under 1600 point in August last year to 3000 point in January this year (see Chart 1 below).<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPjdbqntk4cTJWUWrm_ICKI9irnVBZimjU3HQmQg3B1BQyxh7ssNGt8SX3Ue9P0DiNyLVdG00g_hqUNQjQTcjoY4YqhDnGkzpTRNMlsal12z3hLLRS99ryBfGNf64GI2ynhXk4W3TBQyzK/s1600-h/Shanghai+CI+d20070228.GIF"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPjdbqntk4cTJWUWrm_ICKI9irnVBZimjU3HQmQg3B1BQyxh7ssNGt8SX3Ue9P0DiNyLVdG00g_hqUNQjQTcjoY4YqhDnGkzpTRNMlsal12z3hLLRS99ryBfGNf64GI2ynhXk4W3TBQyzK/s320/Shanghai+CI+d20070228.GIF" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5037110457628531058" border="0" /></a><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Chart 1: SSECI's chart from August 2006 until Mar 1, 2007</span><br /><br />From Chart 2 below, we can see that the SSECI's uptrend picked up pace in August last year & went into a parabolic rise from mid-November last year. This sent the SSECI up 60% in just 2 months; from 1850 point from mid-November to hit a high of 3000 point on January 24. Thereafter, the SSECI underwent an orderly correction & dropped about 14% over a 9 days' period to hit a low of just under 2600 point on Feb 6 before recovering. The SSECI has then tested & exceeded its recent high of 3000 point marginally. On February 28, amid concerns that the government might crack down on illegal investments that help drive benchmarks to record level, investors dumped their shares & the SSECI took a sharp 9.2%-plunge.<br /><br />I believe that there is further correction ahead for the SSECI. The index could have put in a double top reversal. It is likely to test the tentative uptrend line at 2650 (marked as 'A'). If this support is broken, it may drop to the next uptrend line supports at 2200 & then 2000 (marked as 'B' & 'C', respectively). Any further weakness could continue to unnerve investors' throughout the region.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqo8iGNwuhhnaR-ApeN_GbKxkvsEj_kUXT9-KHEbf9XYWh7K049et6sbcqWZluMzAAbGfsgGu0NJI-WE6S-lTh59yPWS8c_c2rRdI8TtD7XOrTe2Sme4RWiPdUIdNuEuKNRvmc9TJi1X6W/s1600-h/Shanghai_CI_d20070227a.gif"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqo8iGNwuhhnaR-ApeN_GbKxkvsEj_kUXT9-KHEbf9XYWh7K049et6sbcqWZluMzAAbGfsgGu0NJI-WE6S-lTh59yPWS8c_c2rRdI8TtD7XOrTe2Sme4RWiPdUIdNuEuKNRvmc9TJi1X6W/s320/Shanghai_CI_d20070227a.gif" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5037110311599642978" border="0" /></a><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Chart 2: SSECI's chart from April 2006 to Feb 27, 2007</span><br /><br />The main similarity between our KLCI and the SSECI is the sharp rise in the past 2 or 3 months. On the other hand, we must bear in mind that the SSECI has been rising for about 18 months while our KLCI has only broken above its 3-year consolidation pattern about 5 months ago (in October last year). Our stock market has no doubt benefited from the same strong foreign buying as that of the other markets in this region (including the Shanghai stock market). At some point over the next 1-3 weeks, investors will realize that our market should be treated differently. Only then, will we see a recovery in this market. </div>leeyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268934698420770132noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8888762388764611934.post-55457212181733847582007-02-15T17:54:00.000+08:002007-02-15T17:58:04.540+08:00Willow inexpensive mesdaq stock<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8NgONhc2dLxNo7IRj9anp_CChTkVSS0GEhhZ_DH6VkDM5wFfthxNSDsjHF-b1UKf4936mwBi16EIauD_59mJsC9T8QdiZO3LWFNk_LNiPYdjjjYJngwVEACCVWnB440nqI3HPQCGYWnc/s1600-h/Willow's+Qs.GIF.png"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8NgONhc2dLxNo7IRj9anp_CChTkVSS0GEhhZ_DH6VkDM5wFfthxNSDsjHF-b1UKf4936mwBi16EIauD_59mJsC9T8QdiZO3LWFNk_LNiPYdjjjYJngwVEACCVWnB440nqI3HPQCGYWnc/s400/Willow's+Qs.GIF.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5031697352041445906" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br />Recent financial result show that prodit for latest quarter slightly improve to 2.5 m or 1 cent per share, annually it around 3.5 cent, based on today closing price of 27 cent. It consider in expensive mesdaq stock. If you belienve theme player for mesdaq will continous, it worth to look at it.leeyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268934698420770132noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8888762388764611934.post-26762406569247722722007-02-07T14:47:00.000+08:002007-02-07T14:51:00.769+08:00Government will revise the minimum broker rates?As today newspaper said. the stock broker now request for minimum Broker rates to RM50 .00 compared to current RM 12.00. This in line with Regional standard, In Singapore minimum rates s at SGD40.00.It is reasoable to adjust such rates! Question now is retail investor are ready on that?<br /><br />Today rally on Broker film may seeking further confirmation later. Then is good new for broker film to growing.leeyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268934698420770132noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8888762388764611934.post-3962894615846876522007-02-04T15:47:00.000+08:002007-02-04T15:59:17.923+08:00Call warrant update : 2 Feb 2007<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHFUGgthcP0QOZhmadlDcKbxzl0452uQxI1rYq9-4mtxAr0uyih8A7R1_fcwy-UTJtd0-_eVH8kQ2yA5tf5vx4qwMWYlR_aR6QnW2XHBOsAMskUwgijdmNNt0zJsfNcAclfu8YJ3xS9HA/s1600-h/p1.GIF"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHFUGgthcP0QOZhmadlDcKbxzl0452uQxI1rYq9-4mtxAr0uyih8A7R1_fcwy-UTJtd0-_eVH8kQ2yA5tf5vx4qwMWYlR_aR6QnW2XHBOsAMskUwgijdmNNt0zJsfNcAclfu8YJ3xS9HA/s400/p1.GIF" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5027583924000835426" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfN4Y5FcfWepOzJXUcxR8M6mKVCOSHtnt0SvcBlGILYxkTawOUR8_hfp_GU7CkMLykKIPRJTJWKH0Zm8cHAqFkMQGKw_wZ3AHk_kHsKx_4Z5y4lJDa-Ji4YepCPDFAeGhwRnmUIQa991M/s1600-h/p2.GIF"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfN4Y5FcfWepOzJXUcxR8M6mKVCOSHtnt0SvcBlGILYxkTawOUR8_hfp_GU7CkMLykKIPRJTJWKH0Zm8cHAqFkMQGKw_wZ3AHk_kHsKx_4Z5y4lJDa-Ji4YepCPDFAeGhwRnmUIQa991M/s400/p2.GIF" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5027582918978488130" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br />From the abov e table the premium of Call Warrant again drop to 9.53%. This reflect the price movement and tie value for money of premium.<br /><br />1.Avoid those Ca will expired from feb to April.<br />2. Avoid those Ca with exceed 10% premium, unless the potential uptrend of mother in short term will realise.<br />3. Concetrate those Ca with minimum premium or even discounts,But avoid those counter already gain more than 50% in past month. This due potential pull back of market.<br />4. Concentrate those CA with longer expiry date.<br /><br />You may swap or consider buying any Ca based on above criteria. Anywhere Warrant is blue market tools with very high risk.Before invest set you cut loss point.leeyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268934698420770132noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8888762388764611934.post-17350234178710834602007-02-01T10:49:00.000+08:002007-02-01T14:15:13.741+08:00TM the next star for Bursa Malaysia ?<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAGJDmfh5MjMLBnvxHUta-_GpeCYflYDV83fEkkNu7UA7VS-IoOOveUhVv7vtvnFjJmkG52V4o4Hk05Wnj1KfksMan4L6WT-PcML-yZe2ZZrYby9Qk_muNeK4JkpKQ12S790Gg3shWUtk/s1600-h/TM's+CWs.GIF.png"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAGJDmfh5MjMLBnvxHUta-_GpeCYflYDV83fEkkNu7UA7VS-IoOOveUhVv7vtvnFjJmkG52V4o4Hk05Wnj1KfksMan4L6WT-PcML-yZe2ZZrYby9Qk_muNeK4JkpKQ12S790Gg3shWUtk/s400/TM's+CWs.GIF.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5026392645722464578" border="0" /></a><br /><br />Recently, TM show break of RM10.10 strong upward resistance, now at RM 10.30. Expected will show some good movement. Anywhere it is last GLC blue chip still lagging behind market. Among the CA, I will prefer the TM CA instead of CB or CC. Anywhere Good Luck in investment.<br /><br />Latest New :<br /><br />TM net deny to sale state in TM net to Media prima, I believe they will joint venture with media for developing the project. Also, the new fixed lines packages, I believe will help TM to slow down the losing market competiton with mobile phone operator. Those analyst may upgrade TM grading in near future.leeyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268934698420770132noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8888762388764611934.post-9950520352745850442007-01-29T17:14:00.000+08:002007-01-29T17:20:27.142+08:00UOA WILL BE ANOTHER QCAPI?<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_db0mzZflQAqg5o5FoRCNWSmnSVmj2yiY5PFH050_29da4wxPFy-Dgq2USj9o1gHGeshwr7QpO9dsmfwDLWlTAyUneFznwXB8qeWxV19HyVnYdAwnnkwVX8qK-qVz3AZDXbIuYLlib9s/s1600-h/UOA+Reit+4q.png"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_db0mzZflQAqg5o5FoRCNWSmnSVmj2yiY5PFH050_29da4wxPFy-Dgq2USj9o1gHGeshwr7QpO9dsmfwDLWlTAyUneFznwXB8qeWxV19HyVnYdAwnnkwVX8qK-qVz3AZDXbIuYLlib9s/s400/UOA+Reit+4q.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5025379441462501538" border="0" /></a><br />UOA REIT was listed in December 2005. It has 3 properties under its portfolio i.e. Wisma UOA Central Parcels, Wisma UOA II Parcels and Wisma UOA Damansara Parcels. Based on a company's Interim Report for June 2006, the occupancy rate of these 3 buildings ranges from 90.0% to 99.4%.<br /><br />UOA REIT has recently announced its results for QE31/12/2006. A quick look at the results show that the topline & bottomline have been rising steadily. Based on these 4 quarterly results, we can see that UOA recorded a net profit of RM20.25 mil on a turnover of RM31.38 mil for FY2006. UOA REIT pays a dividend of 8.5% per annum, representing about 98% of its EPS of 8.67 sen.<br /><br />Current trade at 1.03 which given better yield of 7.5% compared to Qcapitaleeyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268934698420770132noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8888762388764611934.post-11777352293641893852007-01-22T10:50:00.000+08:002007-01-22T10:55:53.671+08:00Call warrant update :19.01.2007<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPKOTxq4ayTsaDpcChpA7nZQrr-4Ok3wCld5QjcZ0LHYpw_-kE39zXHwITJK0W7Bub008hJ2bK3YYKp6gg23BDZ_o91htQB1yC5neHo2Pu8td5ESDh8w9lrs1f8PgjVzXaLjVYHNQciI0/s1600-h/p1.png"><img style="cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPKOTxq4ayTsaDpcChpA7nZQrr-4Ok3wCld5QjcZ0LHYpw_-kE39zXHwITJK0W7Bub008hJ2bK3YYKp6gg23BDZ_o91htQB1yC5neHo2Pu8td5ESDh8w9lrs1f8PgjVzXaLjVYHNQciI0/s400/p1.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5022681923534678450" border="0" /></a><br /><br />As per table , you can seen most of the CA not reach their historic high at Mid December 2006, Although most of the underlying blue chip is up compared to December 2006. This is due to losing in time value and near their expired date. Please put attention on warrant in highlight.leeyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268934698420770132noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8888762388764611934.post-80343803996041420592007-01-21T22:45:00.000+08:002007-01-21T22:52:46.412+08:00YTL CA is cheaper than ytl underlying warrant ?<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9VUiyrbGVzFLH0vDDrGnl4nvj8QVKNf1BlK4WvdXKgMOyjPIkRUIk5P-Br9l3BaDWMmv2aINEwF0TB5nc-S-N33Bgqet35xizu3LXB_4YSZkHHHvhAwoJcNFeZhk_5dQkZ1j0oPxLrcw/s1600-h/YTL+warrants_Dec18.png"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5022495710932593058" style="CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9VUiyrbGVzFLH0vDDrGnl4nvj8QVKNf1BlK4WvdXKgMOyjPIkRUIk5P-Br9l3BaDWMmv2aINEwF0TB5nc-S-N33Bgqet35xizu3LXB_4YSZkHHHvhAwoJcNFeZhk_5dQkZ1j0oPxLrcw/s400/YTL+warrants_Dec18.png" border="0" /></a><br /><br />As table above show Ytl wa and Ytl wb trade at slighly discounts. The CA trade at premium 1.71. The premium is almost same compared to other underlying Ca. I believe investor of YTL will shift their attention to YTL Wa, Wb. At this inunction of time, i really not understand who buy or hold the YTL CA at current price. There are other cheaper source of enter into ytl share.leeyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268934698420770132noreply@blogger.com0