Jul 7, 2008

HEDGE on Comodities using Bursa tools?

Some one comment my posting, said i am persuade people to hedge while i got no such intention to do so!

All go back to Equity again, beside Commodities counter, such IOI, Kinsteel and Oil n gas counter. Wat stock should i hold to mitigate the reverse condition. As i mention early that , Cost Push inflation this time is totally due to high oil and other commodities price. There is no demand push or other factor behind. So Wat?

If the assumption is real. There is possibility interests rates as weapon for hedge the inflation. There is difficulty using strong currency hedge inflation in Malaysia, Overall we are net exporter, Strong currency is not good to our economic, so Wat is next, of course if interests rate hit... Non performing loan , margin all such will reverse from our Banking system or financial control. But

If said oil suddenly drop 20%, the erase of inflation risk and fear on financial stock will removed. Looking at Bursa stocks, I find Bumi Commerce is rather cheap now. Why Bumi-Commerce ?

P/NTA 2.4x
2007 PER: 9x

2008 PER: 9.7x (absorption of Thai bank)
ROE 2007: 20%

ROE 2008: 16%

The Thai bank stake acquisition while a bit pricey at p/nav of 2.9x is still much better than Maybank's recent purchases, and makes more sense. Bank Thai is the 9th largest bank in terms of assets with 147 branches. Post recapitalisation, the purchase price would be 2.3x adjusted NAV. It had some losses in CDOs hence they were open to Bumi-Commerce's entry. The CDO's exposure had been written down already. At least Bumi-Commerce is showing the right culturally correct way to make a regional acquisition, take note Temasek.

There are calling from CLSA , 98% gain from current price Rm 7.40. See there is insurance given. I am thinking buying such stock is something hedging risk of down turn of commodities. Of course there is a risk. At current price, I think risk is minimum.

Of course you can said buying Citigroup , AiA or bank of American all about 30% to 40% value at the peak! There is similarity to buy finance stock as hedging on buying IOI, KNM and so on.. Such stock never been correct since oil keep breaking record.. again USD 200 or 300 coming I don no!! Really Donn.

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